Prediction of Abedallah Shelbayh vs Roger Pascual Ferra at Fairfield Challenger 10-09-25

• Who has the edge in second serve performance recently? Roger Pascual Ferra has claimed 40.85% of points on his second serve, compared to Abedallah Shelbayh's higher 43.28% in the past six months.
• In return games, Roger Pascual Ferra excels by capturing 52.82% of his opponents' second serve points, whereas Abedallah Shelbayh manages 45.11%. For first serve returns, the figures stand at 32.83% for Ferra and 26.91% for Shelbayh.
• Under pressure, Abedallah Shelbayh boasts a higher breakpoint save rate of 51.33%, as opposed to Roger Pascual Ferra's 47.48%.
• Over the last year, Roger Pascual Ferra has a match win percentage of 69.23% (27 wins, 12 losses), substantially higher than Abedallah Shelbayh’s 46.88% (30 wins, 34 losses).
• On hard surfaces, both players share their peak career win rate of 67%. However, Shelbayh significantly underperforms on clay with only a 41% win rate, whereas Ferra achieves 61% on the same surface.
• The level of tournaments played provides further insight: Ferra dominates the lower-tier Futures level with a 68.57% win rate, while Shelbayh competes mostly in the higher-tier Challengers/ITF events with a lower win percentage of 46.77%.
• Considering the caliber of their opponents, Ferra has faced players with an average rank of 300.36, a weaker slate compared to Shelbayh's average opponent rank of 273.2.
• If the match requires a deciding set, Shelbayh has a better track record, winning 50% compared to Ferra's 40% over the past year.
• Current event performance can also sway predictions, so reviewing stats from any matches already played at this event will clarify current form.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

Considering the recent second serve performance, Abedallah Shelbayh holds a slight edge with a better win percentage on points. This is often a key indicator of match success.

However, Roger Pascual Ferra demonstrates strong return game statistics, particularly against opponents' second serves, which could tip the balance in his favor.

Shelbayh's ability to perform under pressure by saving more breakpoints could prove pivotal in critical moments of the match.

Roger Pascual Ferra's superior match win percentage over the past year suggests stronger overall consistency and effectiveness on court.

The quality of the opponents Shelbayh has faced appears higher, potentially giving him a better preparation for this level of competition.

If the match progresses to a deciding set, Shelbayh's higher win rate in such scenarios may grant him the advantage.

Given these factors, Abedallah Shelbayh is marginally favored to win this upcoming tennis match, primarily due to his strong breakpoint defense and experience against higher-ranked competitors.